New Lumia phones seen winning Nokia more time

HELSINKI (Reuters) – Nokia‘s new Lumia smartphones are trickling into the market and early signs suggest they may sell well enough to give the handset maker more time in its fight against industry leaders Samsung and Apple.

But investors shouldn’t expect a quick turnaround for the struggling Finnish cellphone maker, with rival gadgets like mini tablet computers vying for consumers’ attention, analysts said.

“Positive reviews are a great start but as we have seen many times before these won’t deliver strong sales volumes on their own,” said Pete Cunningham, an analyst at research firm Canalys.

Successful sales of the latest Lumia 920 and 820 models are crucial for Nokia’s survival. The former market leader is burning through cash while it loses share in both high-end smartphones and cheaper handsets.

FIM Securities analyst Michael Schroder forecast Nokia will sell 1-3 million of the new models this quarter. It sold 2.9 million older Lumia models in the third quarter, compared to Apple’s sales of around 26.6 million iPhones in the same period.

“In any case the uptake will not be massive,” he predicted.

Lumia’s sales could serve a verdict on Chief Executive Stephen Elop‘s decision in February 2011 to partner with Microsoft instead of using Google‘s Android or continuing to develop Nokia’s own operating system.

Investors had feared poor reviews and weak sales could bring an end to the company’s smartphone business early next year.

So far, consumer reviews seem to favor the feel and look of the new models, which include high-definition cameras and the latest Microsoft Windows Phone 8 software.

“It (the Lumia 920) is very similar in appearance to the Lumia 900, but has curved glass, rounded edges, and curved back so it feels great in your hand. It is a dense device, but if you look at all the pros and cons the heft is worth it,” said a reviewer for tech website ZDNet.

That’s an improvement from the market’s reaction when the new model was first unveiled. The shares slumped 13 percent that day with investors citing a lack of a “wow” factor.

MAKE OR BREAK

Nokia is taking a gradual approach to launching the phones, and availability is expected to vary by market for the next few weeks, compared with Apple’s iPhone models which usually go on sale on the same day to global fanfare.

“While we are very impressed with the hardware features of the Lumia 920 and the improved software functionality of Windows Phone 8, we believe a focused launch to drive steady sales growth is necessary,” said Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley.

In Canada, one of the earliest launch markets, carrier Rogers Communications has trained its sales staff more to sell the latest Lumias than the previous models, said John Boynton, Rogers’ executive vice president of marketing.

He predicted the phones would be popular with first-time smartphone users, thanks to homescreens with tile-like icons designed to help users navigate applications and functions.

“They’re a little nervous at some of the more complex smartphones that are out there,” he said. “The tile format is a really, really simplified way for people to get comfortable using smartphones.”

In France, retail staff have become more confident in explaining Windows Phones to their customers, according to Laurent Lame, devices marketing chief at SFR which is the country’s second-biggest mobile operator.

“They know the product better after six months of good sales of the Lumia 610,” Lame said, adding he was now more optimistic about the Nokia-Microsoft partnership. “For once, with Windows 8, we are not starting from zero.”

Telefonica Deutschland Chief Executive Rene Schuster said he was “very, very pleased” with the early progress of Lumia sales.

Some retailers were more cautious, however, and in some cities there were no demonstration models for customers to test.

A salesman in an O2 store at the Zeil, Frankfurt’s busiest shopping area, said the store could take orders for the phone but could not show it. Demand was “okay, but not huge,” he said.

Analysts also expect tough competition during the pre-Christmas shopping season from the likes of Samsung’s Galaxy S III and Apple’s iPhone 5. Taiwan’s HTC has also introduced smartphones running Windows Phone 8 software.

Other rival gadgets include Apple’s iPad mini as well as cheaper tablets from Google and Amazon.

The stakes could not be higher for Nokia’s Elop, who said in February 2011 the company’s transition would take two years.

“This is absolutely a make-or-break phone for the Windows Phone strategy,” FIM Securities’ Schroder said. “If it fails, they have to take a whole new course.” (Additional reporting by Allison Martell in Toronto, Leila Abboud in Paris, Harro Ten Wolde in Frankfurt and Tarmo Virki in Helsinki; Editing by Mark Potter)

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Day-Lewis heeded inner ear to find Lincoln’s voice

LOS ANGELES (AP) — A towering figure such as Abraham Lincoln, who stood 6 feet 4 and was one of history’s master orators, must have had a booming voice to match, right? Not in Daniel Day-Lewis‘ interpretation.

Day-Lewis, who plays the 16th president in Steven Spielberg‘s epic film biography “Lincoln,” which goes into wide release this weekend, settled on a higher, softer voice, saying it’s more true to descriptions of how the man actually spoke.

“There are numerous accounts, contemporary accounts, of his speaking voice. They tend to imply that it was fairly high, in a high register, which I believe allowed him to reach greater numbers of people when he was speaking publicly,” Day-Lewis said in an interview. “Because the higher registers tend to reach farther than the lower tones, so that would have been useful to him.”

“Lincoln” is just the fifth film in the last 15 years for Day-Lewis, a two-time Academy Award winner for best actor (“My Left Foot” and “There Will Be Blood”). Much of his pickiness stems from a need to understand characters intimately enough to feel that he’s actually living out their experiences.

The soft, reedy voice of his Lincoln grew out of that preparation.

“I don’t separate vocal work, and I don’t dismember a character into its component parts and then kind of bolt it all together, and off you go,” Day-Lewis said. “I tend to try and allow things to happen slowly, over a long period of time. As I feel I’m growing into a sense of that life, if I’m lucky, I begin to hear a voice.

“And I don’t mean in a supernatural sense. I begin to hear the sound of a voice, and if I like the sound of that, I live with that for a while in my mind’s ear, whatever one might call it, my inner ear, and then I set about trying to reproduce that.”

Lincoln himself likely learned to use his voice to his advantage depending on the situation, Day-Lewis said.

“He was a supreme politician. I’ve no doubt in my mind that when you think of all the influences in his life, from his childhood in Kentucky and Indiana and a good part of his younger life in southern Illinois, that the sounds of all those regions would have come together in him somehow.

“And I feel that he probably learned how to play with his voice in public and use it in certain ways in certain places and in certain other ways in other places. Especially in the manner in which he expressed himself. I think, I’ve no doubt that he was conscious enough of his image.”

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War uproots 2.5 million Syrians, aid groups say

GENEVA (Reuters) – At least 2.5 million Syrians are believed to have fled their homes because of civil war, aid groups said on Tuesday, more than double previous estimates.

The figure comes from the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, whose volunteers are on the frontlines of the 20-month conflict, delivering aid supplies and evacuating wounded.

“The figure they are using is 2.5 million. If anything, they believe it could be more, that this is a very conservative estimate,” Melissa Fleming, chief spokeswoman of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), told a news briefing.

“So people are moving, people are really on the run, hiding. They are difficult to count and to access,” she said.

Aid agencies had previously thought there were around 1.2 million internally displaced Syrians.

Only 5 percent of the 2.5 million are believed to be living in public facilities, including warehouses and schools, said Fleming. The rest are staying with host families, making it more difficult to count them.

In recent days, air strikes on the town of Ras al-Ain near the Turkish border have caused some of the biggest refugee movements of the conflict.

The United Nations said on Friday that up to 4 million people inside Syria will need humanitarian aid by early next year when the country is in the grip of winter, up from 2.5 million now whose needs are not fully met.

For now, the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) says its food rations are reaching some 1.5 million. The UNHCR aims to provide assistance to 500,000 in Syria by the end of the year, mainly blankets, clothing, cooking kits and jerry cans, Fleming said.

“Unfortunately the recent deliveries have been very difficult, marred by violence and insecurity also spreading to parts of the country that used to be relatively calm,” she said.

A Syrian Arab Red Crescent warehouse in Aleppo was apparently hit by a shell, burning 13,000 blankets, she said. Unknown armed men hijacked a truck carrying 600 blankets on its way to Adra, outside Damascus.

The UNHCR has temporarily withdrawn about half of its 12 staff from north-eastern Hassaka province due to fierce fighting and insecurity, Fleming said.

“We see corresponding movement of populations there, Syrian Kurds for the most part, across the border into Iraq,” she said.

More than 407,000 Syrian refugees have registered or await registration in the surrounding region – Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq – and more are fleeing every day, according to UNHCR.

(Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)

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In This Junkyard, It Seems, There Are No Dogs

It’s kind of Orwellian that anyone would rapaciously buy an ETF with the ticker JNK—branding shorthand for “junk,” Wall Street’s sobriquet for high-yield, the riskiest layer of corporate bonds.

Nevertheless, JNK, the SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF, and competitor offerings are a hot destination in these yield-famished days. The appeal is irrefutable: You’ll get precious little income from Treasuries and muni bonds. Creditworthy corporations are borrowing at record lows. Why not then pile into riskier, higher-yielding debt, especially if you can do so via one tidy, exchange-traded ticker? (No need to ring Michael Milken.) What’s more, Moody’s sees the global default rate for “speculative-grade” debt ending the year at 2.8 percent, compared with an average of 4.8 percent since 1983. Yields have fallen 1.65 percentage points this year, to 7.05 percent on Nov. 1, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.

What’s not to love?

An overcrowded trade marked by 2007-like issuer complacency—that’s what. More companies are demanding and getting easy terms on their junk issues. The most popular junk ETFs are going deeper into credit risk to scrape for yield. The sluicing of retail money into these ETFs is perpetuating what has historically proved to be a vicious trend. “Signs of over-exuberance are creeping into the corporate credit market,” wrote Michael Lewitt, a hedge fund manager who publishes the Credit Strategist. “In the past, rising issuance of these types of low-quality bonds has been a warning that a market rally is coming to an end … Today’s new issues will be the troubled credits of tomorrow.”

On Nov. 7, Standard & Poor’s warned of the unprecedented dangers of a brave, new junk bond world. Wrote credit analysts Diane Vazza and Evan Gunter:

“The ease with which investors can enter and exit ETF investments creates new and risky dynamics in the speculative-grade market with the potential flow of ‘hot money.’ Speculative-grade companies have a higher default risk than investment-grade companies. Therefore, when the credit cycle turns against investors, losses from defaults can quickly outstrip the additional interest payments that high-yield investors receive. Since we are entering the stage of declining credit quality in the current credit cycle, the credit quality of an issuer or a portfolio has become paramount.”

Vazza and Gunter looked under the hoods of JNK and its rival, HYG, the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund. They found that both ETFs owned a higher proportion of the riskiest junk debt versus the overall high-yield market. While they estimated that the broad universe of high yield includes 7.9 percent of bonds rated CCC+ and lower, their share in HYG’s portfolio is at 11.0 percent and in JNK just under 10 percent. While higher risk juices returns in a favorable environment like the present one, the analysts explained, they take outsized losses once the credit cycle turns.

Sales of junk debt in the U.S. have come in at $ 294 billion so far this year, the fastest pace on record. It’s in that booming backdrop that private equity-owned companies have paid out $ 34.1 billion in dividends this year, according to Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ Leveraged Commentary & Data. That’s north of 2010’s total of $ 31.5 billion and the $ 23.8 billion paid out in 2007, when the leveraged buyout market peaked. By comparison: Some $ 1.2 billion in dividends were issued in 2008 and $ 440 million in 2009.

This boom has prompted an echo-boom in payment-in-kind transactions, or PIK toggles, which let companies pay interest in debt rather than cash, essentially deferring payments to their investors. That tactic was a hallmark of the private equity bubble of five years ago. According to Moody’s, as of mid-October two of the third quarter’s 14 dividend financings enjoyed PIK toggle structures, including Emergency Medical Services’ $ 450 million of notes to pay a dividend to Clayton, Dubilier & Rice and IDQ Holdings’ $ 45 million deal supporting a payout to Castle Harlan. Last month, Petco also got in on the PIK toggle boom.

Caveat junktor. Moody’s calculates that the default rate for companies that sold PIK-toggle bonds was 13 percent from 2006 to 2010, twice the rate for similarly rated issuers that didn’t use the tactic.

“Low yields are driving more and more investors into really strange territory,” says Lee Pacchia, a Bloomberg Law analyst who follows corporate bankruptcies. “They need to take on risk. While the market forces driving this trend could go on for a while, lowering standards could end badly. It’s called ‘junk’ for a reason.”

The institutional smart money is increasingly taking the other side of that trade. According to Bloomberg data, the number of bearish options on HYG are at an all-time high: The number of outstanding puts on HYG has almost doubled since Oct. 19, to a record of 118,444 at the end of last month. Hedge funds seeking that bet on both gains and losses in credit attracted $ 12.6 billion of deposits in the three months ended Sept. 30, the most since the last quarter of 2007, according to HFR.

It all makes you wonder how quickly people may have forgotten the lessons of the credit bubble, or what one hedgie has called the era of promiscuous lending. Will today’s junk boom end so differently?

“The history of money is a sad state of affairs,” wrote Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland in his recent post, titled “The Myth of Deleveraging.” “Failing to learn from a litany of previous monetary fiascoes, ‘money’ is these days being abusively over-issued.”

Farzad is a Bloomberg Businessweek contributor.

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Microsoft’s Surface tablet has “modest” start: Ballmer

PARIS (Reuters) – Microsoft Corp‘s new Surface tablet – its challenger to Apple‘s iPad – had a “modest” start to sales because of limited availability, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer told French daily Le Parisien.

The world’s largest software company put the Surface tablet center stage at its Windows 8 launch event last month in its fightback against Apple and Google in the exploding mobile computing market.

“We’ve had a modest start because Surface is only available on our online retail sites and a few Microsoft stores in the United States,” Ballmer was quoted as saying.

Meanwhile, 4 million upgrades to Windows 8 were sold in the three days following the system’s launch, Ballmer added. (Reporting by Lionel Laurent; Editing by David Cowell)

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Hathaway says ‘Les Mis’ made her feel deprived

NEW YORK (AP) — Anne Hathaway credits her new husband Adam Schulman for helping her get through the grueling filming of the screen adaptation of “Les Miserables.”

In “Les Mis,” the 30-year-old actress plays Fantine, a struggling, sickly mother forced into prostitution in 1800s Paris.

Hathaway lost 25 pounds and cut her hair for the role. She tells the December issue of Vogue, the part left her in a “state of deprivation, physical and emotional.” She felt easily overwhelmed and says Shulman was understanding and supportive.

The couple wed in September in Big Sur, Calif. Hathaway wore a custom gown by Valentino whom she collaborated with on the design. Working with the designer is a memory she says she will “treasure forever.”

The December issue of Vogue hits stores Nov. 20.

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Online:

http://www.vogue.com/

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British medical journal slams Roche on Tamiflu

LONDON (AP) — A leading British medical journal is asking the drug maker Roche to release all its data on Tamiflu, claiming there is no evidence the drug can actually stop the flu.

The drug has been stockpiled by dozens of governments worldwide in case of a global flu outbreak and was widely used during the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

On Monday, one of the researchers linked to the BMJ called for European governments to sue Roche.

“I suggest we boycott Roche’s products until they publish missing Tamiflu data,” wrote Peter Gotzsche, leader of the Nordic Cochrane Centre in Copenhagen. He said governments should take legal action against Roche to get the money back that was “needlessly” spent on stockpiling Tamiflu.

Last year, Tamiflu was included in a list of “essential medicines” by the World Health Organization, which often prompts governments or donor agencies to buy the drug.

WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said the agency recommended the drug be used to treat unusual influenza viruses like bird flu. “We do have substantive evidence it can stop or hinder progression to severe disease like pneumonia,” he said.

In 2009, the BMJ and researchers at the Nordic Cochrane Centre asked Roche to make all its Tamiflu data available. At the time, Cochrane Centre scientists were commissioned by Britain to evaluate flu drugs. They found no proof that Tamiflu reduced the number of complications in people with influenza.

“Despite a public promise to release (internal company reports) for each (Tamiflu) trial…Roche has stonewalled,” BMJ editor Fiona Godlee wrote in an editorial last month.

In a statement, Roche said it had complied with all legal requirements on publishing data and provided Gotzsche and his colleagues with 3,200 pages of information to answer their questions.

“Roche has made full clinical study data…available to national health authorities according to their various requirements, so they can conduct their own analyses,” the company said.

Roche says it doesn’t usually release patient-level data available due to legal or confidentiality constraints. It said it did not provide the requested data to the scientists because they refused to sign a confidentiality agreement.

Roche is also being investigated by the European Medicines Agency for not properly reporting side effects, including possible deaths, for 19 drugs including Tamiflu that were used in about 80,000 patients in the U.S.

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Online:

www.bmj.com.tamiflu/

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Bernanke’s stamp on Fed could tie hands of successor

NEW YORK (Reuters) – President Barack Obama‘s next choice to head the U.S. Federal Reserve could have his or her hands tied if Ben Bernanke and company continue to re-write the policymaking rule book at their current clip.

Under Chairman Bernanke, who is expected to step down when his current term expires in January 2014, the U.S. central bank has embraced the goal of making the historically shrouded business of setting monetary policy far more transparent.

It has adopted a string of new rules and guidelines to clarify its policy intentions, including an inflation target and a conditional vow to hold interest rates near zero until at least mid-2015.

The next step is being hotly debated now.

Fed policymakers are striving to agree on a set of economic variables, or thresholds — probably particular levels of unemployment and inflation — that would signal when the time to raise interest rates was finally drawing near.

The trick is making a credible commitment that convinces investors to keep longer-term borrowing costs low, thus stimulating the economy, while at the same time ensuring the Fed can react swiftly to changing economic realities.

The concern is that these rules and guidelines will crimp the central bank’s flexibility in years to come as it deals with the fits and starts of a protracted U.S. economic recovery.

“The more they do it over the next year, the more the next chair will be constrained,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and a former Fed economist. The “constructive ambiguity” the central bank has famously used over the years to safeguard its policy-setting discretion is slowly disappearing, he said.

PRESERVING POLICY CREDIBILITY

In battling the worst recession in decades, central banks around the world have deployed untested tools, such as large-scale bond purchases. They have also often made commitments about how, and for how long, they plan to use the tools.

Their decisions will matter for years to come.

After eight grueling years battling a severe financial crisis, the deepest recession since the Great Depression and a disappointing recovery, Fed watchers say Bernanke will likely want to step down when his second term as Fed chief expires, even if Obama wants him to stay.

But the economy is unlikely to have fully recovered by then, leaving any rate-hike cycle to his successor. Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen and Lawrence Summers, a former White House economic adviser, are both considered possible top candidates for the job.

Whomever Obama nominates will be handed a rule book from the Bernanke era that will be difficult, and maybe unwise, to erase.

Though the guidelines adopted under Bernanke are not iron-clad law, “the credibility of policy actions would be at stake if they were easily overturned,” said Peter Hooper, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.

AGE OF IMPROV

If Fed officials can reach agreement, economic thresholds would replace their stated expectation that interest rates would remain near zero through at least mid-2015.

It would be the latest refinement to the Fed’s communications toolkit. In the last 16 months alone, it moved to tie low interest rates to calendar dates, adopted a formal inflation target of 2 percent, and published the policy expectations of each of its 19 policymakers. It built on that list in September when it said it expected to buy bonds until the labor market outlook improved “substantially.”

Within the Fed’s policy-making committee, however, consensus on which unemployment or inflation levels to use has proven elusive. Four top Fed officials have gone public with their own proposals, whether simply to provide a window into their tough internal debate or to sway their colleagues.

“It would be nice if we could communicate more clearly what those parameters are,” William Dudley, the influential president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said last month.

“The problem of course is that it’s very hard to summarize the economy, and how you’re going to feel about the economy, through just one or two parameters,” said Dudley, who has not pitched a plan.

Yellen — who as chair would likely smooth the transition from Bernanke — could shed more light on the issue on Tuesday when she gives a speech on central bank communications.

To be sure, Bernanke’s Fed has been careful to leave itself some breathing space. The current round of bond purchases is “open-ended,” meaning there is no dollar value or timeline constraining it.

Still, the drum beat of rule changes continues.

The Fed is also considering adopting a “consensus forecast” to give investors a better sense of how policy is likely to evolve. That would build on a January decision to publish for the first time individual policymakers’ rates forecasts.

As Bernanke’s term draws to a close, the jury is still out on the effectiveness of the new transparency steps.

“It is the improvisation stage,” Reinhart said, “and it does feel unsatisfying.”

(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Tim Ahmann and Leslie Adler)

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Israel kills Gaza rocket crewman in second day of clashes

GAZA (Reuters) – An Israeli air strike killed a Palestinian militant in the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip on Sunday as a surge in cross-border violence entered its second day, local officials said.

Islamic Jihad, a smaller faction than Hamas which often operates independently, identified the dead man as one of its own, saying he was a member of a rocket crew hit by an Israeli missile in Jabalya, northern Gaza.

The Israeli military confirmed carrying out an air strike in the area. The death brought to six the number of Palestinians killed by Israel since four of its troops were hurt in a missile attack on their jeep along the Gaza boundary fence.

Islamic Jihad said it had fired 70 short-range rockets and mortar bombs across the border since Saturday, salvoes which drove Israeli residents to blast shelters. At least one Israeli, in the town of Sderot, was wounded, ambulance workers said.

Israel described the jeep ambush as part of a Palestinian strategy of trying to curb its countermeasures against possible cross-border infiltration. Israeli forces often mount hunts for tunnels and landmines on the inside of the Gaza boundary, creating a no-go zone for Palestinians.

“Of course we don’t accept their attempt to change the rules,” Defence Minister Ehud Barak told Israel’s Army Radio.

“The essence of the struggle is over the fence. We intend to enable the IDF (Israel Defence Forces) to work not just on our side but on the other side as well.”

Palestinians said four of Saturday’s dead were civilians hit by an Israeli tank shell while paying respects at a crowded mourning tent in Gaza’s Shijaia neighborhood. Israel denies targeting civilians.

The bloodshed puts internal pressure on Hamas, which, though hostile to the Jewish state, has sat out some of the recent rounds of violence as it tried to consolidate its Gaza rule and reach out to neighboring Egypt and other foreign powers.

Israel blames Hamas for any attacks emanating from Gaza, but has shown little appetite for a major sweep of the territory which might strain its own fraught ties to the new Islamist-rooted government in Cairo.

(Writing by Dan Williams; Reporting by Nidal al-Mughrabi; Editing by Todd Eastham)

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IBM surprised by Avantor lawsuit, calls claims exaggerated

(Reuters) – IBM, which is being sued by chemicals manufacturer Avantor Performance Materials for fraud and breach of contract in connection with a software project, said the accusations were blown out of proportion and that it was surprised by the move.

“We believe the allegations in the complaint are exaggerated and misguided and are surprised that Avantor chose to file suit,” the company said late on Friday in an emailed statement.

IBM said it had “met its contractual obligations and delivered a solution that Avantor continued to use in its operations.”

Avantor, which produces chemicals and raw materials for pharmaceutical products, laboratory chemicals and chemicals used in the electronics industry, filed a lawsuit on Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey.

It said it was seeking tens of million in damages from IBM, which according to the lawsuit, had misrepresented the capabilities of a software program that runs on a platform by SAP, resulting “in a near standstill” of Avantor’s business.

(Reporting By Nicola Leske; Editing by Vicki Allen)

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